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Climate change will soon be at the core of public discussion and public policy, according to Dr. Thomas Homer-Dixon.
Investors will have a "vitally important" role to play in building resilient communities to withstand the anticipated shocks and challenges to current institutions, technologies, populations and infrastructures, said the noted futurist.
In a presentation to about 180 people attending a fundraising dinner for the Fund for Action on Investment Responsibility (FAIR) in Toronto Sept. 25, Homer-Dixon said that dramatic environmental and climatic changes will force politicians to focus on policies to deal with those changes.
He said there are two things climate scientists are concerned about: 1) "positive feedbacks" appear to be developing enormous force; and 2) ice-sheet melting appears to be occurring far faster than expected because of dynamic processes.
Ice-albedo feedback is an example of how small changes in temperature can make a big difference. As the atmosphere warms, ice melts, resulting in lower reflectivity of the ocean surface. Instead of reflecting sun, the ocean increasingly absorbs the sun's energy, leading to additional atmospheric warming. This process is now occurring on its own and explains why the most dramatic changes in climate are occurring at the poles, said Homer-Dixon, who was recently appointed Centre for International Governance Innovation Chair of Global Systems at the prestigious Balsillie School of International Affairs in Waterloo ON. He is the award-winning author of The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization.
Changes in sea ice in the past few years is "stunning" for climate scientists, he said, adding that they are 30 years ahead of predictions. Loss of sea ice is critically important because it has served as a reflective surface to cool the earth's temperature. Another concern for scientists with the loss of sea ice is the release of the toxic methane gas that it stores, exacerbating the warming trend.
Impact on public policy
He said that scientific findings on global warming are rapidly moving climate change and related issues (carbon taxes, trade, etc.) to the forefront of public policy. Scientists are of the view that we need to go to zero carbon emissions as quickly as possible. Because the context in which we are operating is changing much faster than predicted, they believe that we need to mobilize as if we are facing a war threat. The longer we wait, the more likely future generations will end up with restrictions on their freedoms. There is a real advantage to getting ahead of this problem now.
Experts already know what we need to do, said Homer-Dixon, citing the example of "distributed innovations" (interorganizational collaboration, often involving a network of partners located around the world, which also gives developing countries an opportunity to participate in innovation), which provide opportunities for investors.
The creation of a global carbon market (putting a price on carbon emissions) will give entrepreneurs an incentive to innovate to keep carbon out of the atmosphere.
Shifting from efficiency and sustainability to resillience
In a complex, tightly connected world exhibiting increasingly frequent and severe shock, the balance of economic and social investment should shift away from efficiency towards resilience to prevent catastrophic failure, according to Homer-Dixon.
In terms of food and energy production, he said there is an efficiency advantage to connectivity, but as connectivity increases, so does risk. Regions and peoples that are self-sufficient are likely to be more resilient in the face of shocks and challenges.
Homer-Dixon argued that society needs to increase systemic resilience and adaptability-resilient people, institutions and societies, which is different from simple sustainability.
Homer-Dixon concluded his presentation by offering some suggestions for mitigation strategies, from conventional to radical, predicated on a significant carbon price. These include:
- Efficiency and conservation
- Renewable energy ( Ground Source Heat Pumps)
- Coal with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and nuclear power-these will be part of our future; the issue is cost
- Unconventional technologies (Underground Coal Gasification, enhanced geothermal, stratospheric windmills
- Atmospheric carbon capture
- Geoengineering, although we don't know what the consequences of this will be
- Shifting away from conventionally defined "growth", necessitating social and ideological adjustments to ameliorate the conflict between rich and poor societies.
The complete powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.socialinvestment.ca/Thomas%20Homer-Dixonpresentation%20Sept2508.ppt.
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